Mar 252013
 

We’ve come to the Elite Eight of our March Madness Stock Watch and we have two distinctive themes.

Stocks showing a definitive breakout pattern or setup to a breakout and those showing a steady momentum upward within a well defined price channel.

Check out the awesome chart patterns below.

EAST

IRDM – Continues to display wedge pattern, the only question is – will it be able to breakout and win during this crucial week?

eight-irdm-wedge

MRH – Meanwhile, MRH continues to show good rising strength.

eight-mrh-momentum-channel

 

NORTH

BA – Boeing had a great breakout and now looks to establish a favorable pattern before it cools off  and comes crashing back down to earth.

eight-ba-breakout-momentum

BKE – Buckel has demonstrated good form in maintaining a horizontal cooling off period (maintaining support) and then establishing a positive momentum patter after experiencing a similar BA style breakout last year.  But, has BKE reached a momentum swing point with a possible new wedge pattern forming over the past two weeks?  If so, it could be a bumpy ride this week.

eight-bke-channel

SOUTH

DPS – Technically DPS was in a positive pattern upward (but just barely).  After recovering from a violent drop in February, DPS has skyrocketed at just the right time to win each contest match-up this month.  Now it faces the pressure of maintaining this breakout momentum above its top price channel.

eight-dps-channel

INTL – is once again flirting with support lows and has yet to see any movement up to challenge this downward wedge pattern.  It is amazing that they have managed to win this far into the contest.

eight-intl-wedge

WEST

SVLC – a previous “W” pattern (February – March) could have been a signal for a reversal. Now it has to breakout of its trending downward price channel.  The rising support level of the horizontal wedge pattern helps support this effort.

eight-svlc-wedge-w-reversal

TWX – is another stock that looks like it wants to continue in it established rising price channel.  Will it be enough to carry it through to the final rounds?

eight-twx-channel

You can follow this weeks match-ups, as well as the coming Final Four and Championship by clicking HERE!

Mar 232013
 

I could win 01According to one some super smart guys out there on the internet, the odds of correctly picking a perfect NCAA bracket are about 9.2 Quintillion to one.

But that is based solely on the fact of treating every game, every team with an equal 50/50 chance of winning.

Of course we all know that is not exactly correct.

 

 

There has never been a 16 seed beating a number 1 seed.

That translates to an impressive 0% win rate for 16th seeded teams.

Six, no wait, Seven 15th seeds have beat a number 2. Thank you Georgetown ;-) That is roughly a 4% win rate.

I could win 02

Eleven and Twelve seeds have done much better. Each has roughly a 33% historical win rate against 6th and 5th ranked teams respectively.

Still, factor all this highly technical mathematical statistics and probability mumbo-jumbo into it and you come up with something like 35 billion to 1.

Not that I would recommend either as a get rich strategy, but you would be better off playing the lottery.

Mar 212013
 

Where the fans live

 

By mapping out where over 1 million Facebook fans currently live, you and all your friends can see how regions and states will be dividing their loyalty and filling out their brackets for March Madness.  According to the data, the ACC dominates the country.

Do you agree?

Check out all the maps for the teams and conferences playing in the tournament here

Mar 192013
 

march-madness-BracketBallBack in 2011 we witnessed VCU become the first team from the recently expanded first four round advance to the final four.

It was a historic NCAA Tournament.

This year, Louisville is the talk of the tournament with the #1 overall spot.

I don’t think they will make it.

I have two brackets set up.

One, with a ton of upsets and games I think are going to be great to watch.

The other, with my personal favorites dominating into the final four.

 

 

First my upset bracket:

MIDWEST:

madness-bracket-midwest

St. Mary’s and Creighton (I hate Duke) make it to the Sweet 16!

Yes, I have Louisville losing!  I told you it was a crazy upset bracket.

WEST:

madness-bracket-west

La Salle and Belmont make it to the Sweet 16.

Sorry Ohio St fans, you are going to lose to one of the “I” teams (either Iowa State or Iona).

SOUTH:

madness-bracket-south

Kansas gets dropped by North Carolina.

Michigan and S. Dakota prove to be the game to watch.

And unfortunately VCU falls to S. Dakota.

EAST:

madness-bracket-east

This is my “boring” part of the bracket with only Bucknell being a possible surprise advance.

 

My Final Four:

 

Creighton, Belmont, Florida, Indiana

 

And The Winner Is:

madness-bracket-v1

Florida!

 

 

And for my slightly more realistic “personal favorite” but very boring bracket I have all four #1′s making it to the Final Four with Gonzaga defeating Indiana for the National Championship.

Who do you have winning?

 

Mar 172013
 

This weeks March Madness Stock match-ups saw lots of our contenders fighting to maintain recent momentum.  Many of our recent high flyers (with one notable exception) have cooled off and fallen to lesser (yet steady) performing contenders.

There are plenty of great examples of resistance levels putting momentum pressure on stocks, wedge patterns putting the squeeze on price points this week, successful break-outs and good ol’ positive price channels maintaining a winning record.

Lets take a look at some of them:

WEST

VCI and TWX go up against each other this week in the battle of the momentum charts.  VCI has successfully broken above resistance and is looking to maintain momentum and establish another good pattern.

madness2-vci

TWX is staying within its upward moving price channel.

madness2-twx

EAST

PCCC broke through top level of their rising price channel but may not be able to have what it takes to establish a new pattern. They lost their breakout momentum this week which was enough to lose to slow but recently steady ORCL.

madness2-pccc

MRH and ORCL both rising however ORCL has formed a rising wedge pattern which indicates it days may be numbered.

madness2-mrh

madness2-orcl

NORTH

BA – just like ACAS and PCCC experience a breakout at just the right time.  Unlike ACAS and PCCC, Boeing has the strength of hope and hype.  They seem to have a solution for their pesky little fire problem and they continue to receive new orders for more planes.

madness2-ba

So, when will all this good news end? Will Boeing stock continue to take flight this week or crash and burn when the hype is over?

BKE – looks to have broken through two levels of resistance, and will attempt to not suffer post break-out disorder.

madness2-bke

BKE has two potential patterns starting here – one a good rising channel – the other a rising wedge. The key will be how well BKE stays above its recent resistance levels.

CACC – recovers from the dreaded rising wedge to breakout above resistance and looks to establish a new and hopefully better pattern.  But they have a ton of pressure to overcome with trying to retain momentum above the break out and their rising price channel.

madness2-cacc

CROX – On the other hand, after successfully breaking out of a wedge pattern, continues its positive momentum trend upward well inside their newly established rising price channel.  Sometimes slow and steady does win the race.

madness2-crox

SOUTH

Remember last weeks hype darling?  HIMX?

madness2-himx

Well hype ran out almost as fast as it started.  Last week we debated if HIMX was nothing more than a classic pump and dump scam.  I think the sudden boost was, however, the stock itself is a good stock and just might benefit in the long run from this exposure and its potential relationship with Google Glass.  HIMX is still up quite a bit for the month of March, but they lost a lot of momentum last week and drop out of the tournament.

And to highlight our latest breakout star, perhaps peaking at the right time to carry itself all the way through to the end of the tournament:

GTIV – Wedge?  What Wedge – I’m breaking out-a-here!  GTIV had two really good support levels to bounce off of and looks to continue moving upwards in the coming weeks.  Will it be enough to win?

madness2-gtiv

See Ya’ll Later!